Update cost_reductions.yaml

NRWAL/analysis_library/osw_2023/cost_reductions.yaml

@@ -1,51 +1,130 @@
 # As of June 2023, all years are COD! NOT FID!
 # ncf values are 0 because we will model directly
 
-# capex reductions are based on learning rates of 8.8% (fixed) and 11.5% (float) (matches FORCE Report)
-# floating capex trajectory has a scaling factor of 3 (cite Oregon study)
+# mid scennario capex reductions based on learning rates of 7.3% (fixed) and 
+# 10.2% (float)
+# advanced and conservative scenarios experience factor = b0+/-bse
+# regression variables included turbine rating (effects excluded from LR)
+# floating capex trajectory has a scaling factor of 2.5 (cite FORCE Report)
 
 # opex trajectories derived from Wiser et al. (2021) Expert Elicitation by 
-# assuming same rate of reduction from 2019-2035 applies 2022 to 2050 and 
-# taking a curve in the same shape as the capex learning curve, but with a 
-# final magnitude of reduction based on the value obatined from wiser
-# floating opex trajectory has a scaling factor of 2 to approximate the same 
-# commercial maturity date as the floating capex trajectory
+# assuming same magnitude of reduction in 2035 (adjusted relative to 2022)
+# but scaling the capex learning curve to match that value in 2035
 
-fixed:
-  capex_2025: 0.088231622
-  capex_2030: 0.189748932
-  capex_2035: 0.233403656
-  capex_2040: 0.268009357
-  capex_2045: 0.298369019
-  capex_2050: 0.323479782
-  ncf_2025: 0.0
-  ncf_2030: 0.0
-  ncf_2035: 0.0
-  ncf_2040: 0.0
-  ncf_2045: 0.0
-  ncf_2050: 0.0
-  opex_2025: 0.105011739
-  opex_2030: 0.225835873
-  opex_2035: 0.277792965
-  opex_2040: 0.318980067
-  opex_2045: 0.355113608
-  opex_2050: 0.385
-floating:
-  capex_2025: -0.788072662
-  capex_2030: -0.306301388
-  capex_2035: -0.03603437
-  capex_2040: 0.096442262
-  capex_2045: 0.17825835
-  capex_2050: 0.231807916
-  ncf_2025: 0.0
-  ncf_2030: 0.0
-  ncf_2035: 0.0
-  ncf_2040: 0.0
-  ncf_2045: 0.0
-  ncf_2050: 0.0
-  opex_2025: -0.387946477
-  opex_2030: -0.144639971
-  opex_2035: -0.008148388
-  opex_2040: 0.058755614
-  opex_2045: 0.100074778
-  opex_2050: 0.127118644
+# all trajectories have short term cost adders to account for higher costs
+# reported by industry.
+
+fixed_mid_scenario:
+  capex_2025: -0.156806259
+  capex_2030: 0.158986365
+  capex_2035: 0.196455523
+  capex_2040: 0.226426582
+  capex_2045: 0.25292737
+  capex_2050: 0.275000051
+  ncf_2025: 0
+  ncf_2030: 0
+  ncf_2035: 0
+  ncf_2040: 0
+  ncf_2045: 0
+  ncf_2050: 0
+  opex_2025: -0.162726796
+  opex_2030: 0.146126185
+  opex_2035: 0.180564516
+  opex_2040: 0.208111259
+  opex_2045: 0.232468436
+  opex_2050: 0.252755689
+fixed_conservative_scenario:
+  capex_2025: -0.255881389
+  capex_2030: -0.152322165
+  capex_2035: 0.121762357
+  capex_2040: 0.141357556
+  capex_2045: 0.158942439
+  capex_2050: 0.1737834
+  ncf_2025: 0
+  ncf_2030: 0
+  ncf_2035: 0
+  ncf_2040: 0
+  ncf_2045: 0
+  ncf_2050: 0
+  opex_2025: -0.274954562
+  opex_2030: -0.194549838
+  opex_2035: 0.069122564
+  opex_2040: 0.080246449
+  opex_2045: 0.090229109
+  opex_2050: 0.098654088
+fixed_advanced_scenario:
+  capex_2025: -0.047733637
+  capex_2030: 0.217880507
+  capex_2035: 0.266870354
+  capex_2040: 0.305374904
+  capex_2045: 0.338904611
+  capex_2050: 0.366454243
+  ncf_2025: 0
+  ncf_2030: 0
+  ncf_2035: 0
+  ncf_2040: 0
+  ncf_2045: 0
+  ncf_2050: 0
+  opex_2025: -0.055236627
+  opex_2030: 0.201895239
+  opex_2035: 0.247290841
+  opex_2040: 0.282970423
+  opex_2045: 0.314040152
+  opex_2050: 0.339568546
+floating_mid_scenario:
+  capex_2025: -1.104037385
+  capex_2030: -0.360733267
+  capex_2035: -0.097373909
+  capex_2040: 0.029708329
+  capex_2045: 0.104001537
+  capex_2050: 0.145849628
+  ncf_2025: 0
+  ncf_2030: 0
+  ncf_2035: 0
+  ncf_2040: 0
+  ncf_2045: 0
+  ncf_2050: 0
+  opex_2025: -0.113229956
+  opex_2030: 0.212524235
+  opex_2035: 0.261652542
+  opex_2040: 0.285359068
+  opex_2045: 0.299218076
+  opex_2050: 0.307024618
+floating_conservative_scenario:
+  capex_2025: -1.384849833
+  capex_2030: -0.954067047
+  capex_2035: -0.488069313
+  capex_2040: -0.377027157
+  capex_2045: -0.30961593
+  capex_2050: -0.270734415
+  ncf_2025: 0
+  ncf_2030: 0
+  ncf_2035: 0
+  ncf_2040: 0
+  ncf_2045: 0
+  ncf_2050: 0
+  opex_2025: -0.229124445
+  opex_2030: -0.114116181
+  opex_2035: 0.172759534
+  opex_2040: 0.19171695
+  opex_2045: 0.203225576
+  opex_2050: 0.209863533
+floating_advanced_scenario:
+  capex_2025: -0.827905943
+  capex_2030: -0.077560145
+  capex_2035: 0.199817748
+  capex_2040: 0.325110179
+  capex_2045: 0.395539991
+  capex_2050: 0.434247631
+  ncf_2025: 0
+  ncf_2030: 0
+  ncf_2035: 0
+  ncf_2040: 0
+  ncf_2045: 0
+  ncf_2050: 0
+  opex_2025: 0.008114326
+  opex_2030: 0.273579547
+  opex_2035: 0.326927966
+  opex_2040: 0.351025608
+  opex_2045: 0.364571458
+  opex_2050: 0.372016144